Sweet 16 Preview 3-27-21

(12) Oregon State v. (8) Loyola Chicago

The first matchup of the Sweet 16 features two schools who have made strong runs in the Midwest Region. Oregon State has won 5 games in a row dating back to the Pac-12 Conference Tournament and has proven that their auto-bid was no fluke. The way they were able to withstand the pressure from Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State in the Second Round was very impressive. Loyola Chicago is coming off a controlling performance over #1 seed Illinois in which they limited the influence of opposing guard Ayo Donsumu and stifled big-man Kofi Cockburn inside. Loyola has superior coaching, as Peter Moser has developed strong gameplans for each matchup so far, but in no way are the Ramblers 8 points better than Oregon State.

The Bet: Oregon State Spread

(5) Villanova v. (1) Baylor

Villanova has rattled off two strong wins in a row so far in this tournament but neither came against very strong opposition. The Wildcats defeated Winthrop by 10 and then took out North Texas by 23. Villanova has the name recognition in March, but the truth is this team isn’t at an Elite 8 level, especially without Collin Gillespie. Baylor showed its dominant side in a commanding win over Wisconsin in the Second Round, and after a late season Covid-19 pause, it looks like the Bears are back to being the consensus #2 team in the country. Baylor’s offensive metrics are off the charts and I do not believe Villanova will be able to match them shot for shot.

The Bet: Baylor Spread

(15) Oral Roberts v. (3) Arkansas

Oral Roberts is the Cinderella story of the tournament so far. After scoring a massive upset over #2 Ohio State, the Golden Eagles secured another close win over #7 Florida to get to the Sweet 16. Oral Roberts is the first 15 seed to reach the second weekend of the tournament since Florida Gulf Coast and Dunk City did it in 2013. Arkansas survived a close Second Round game against Texas Tech in which the Red Raiders had a shot to win at the end but just couldn't convert. Arkansas is a well balanced team with veteran players who can shoot from deep but also get back and play tenacious defense. I believe the clock will strike midnight on Oral Roberts today, but they will not go down without a fight.

The Bet: Oral Roberts Spread, Under 158.5 Total Points

(11) Syracuse v. (2) Houston

It’s late March, which means Jim Boeheim has an underseeded Syracuse team in the Sweet 16, again. The Orange have made another deep run in the tournament this year and a lot of it has to do with their 2-3 zone defense. Syracuse confused West Virginia all game in the Second Round and forced them into either turning the ball over or taking bad shots. Another reason for Syracuse’s run is the play of star guard Buddy Boeheim, the coach's son, who has scored over 25 points in 4 straight games dating back to the ACC Conference Tournament. Houston needed a late comeback against Rutgers to even advance to the second weekend and a lot of that had to do with Rutgers throwing the game away more than Houston playing well. Houston is underrated by the public but the truth is they haven’t played a lot of good competition all season and walking into a game against Boeheim’s Syracuse and that 2-3 zone defense in March is not a welcoming wake-up call.

The Bet: Syracuse Spread, Syracuse Moneyline

Fancy a Parlay?

Baylor & Arkansas to Win + Over 123.5 Total Points in Oregon St. v. Loyola Chi.