Thursday Night Football Preview: 49ers v Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) v Seattle Seahawks (43)

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It is rookie sensation against veteran revelation on Thursday Night Football this week. Brock Purdy will make his second consecutive start for the 49ers as he looks to continue the hot start to his NFL career. Across from him will be Geno Smith, the 9 year veteran who has suddenly become the unquestioned starter in Seattle. San Francisco will look to bolster its NFC West division lead as they sit two games ahead of Seattle at 9-4. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are slipping away in the hunt for an NFC wild card spot and are nearly in full blown desperation mode.

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No quarterback? No problem. Kyle Shanahan has kept the wheels turning on the 49ers season despite losing Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo to season ending injuries. The replacement has been “Mr Irrelevant” aka the last pick in this year's NFL draft, Brock Purdy. Making his first career start against Tom Brady and the Bucs last week, Purdy went for 185 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air. One of the biggest reasons for San Francisco’s consistent offensive firepower is the mid-season acquisition of star running back Christian McCaffery. Last week he went for 119 yards on the ground and 2 total touchdowns. The big question for the 49ers this week will be how they adjust offensively to the loss of star wideout Deebo Samuel who is likely to miss the remainder of the regular season. Defensively, this team hums along no matter what. Coordinator DeMeco Ryans is a shoe-in for a head coaching position this offseason and has his unit #1 in total yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, and points against. 

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The Seattle Seahawks were the feel-good story of the first half of the NFL season. After trading away franchise QB, Russell Wilson, many thought the team would be in full blown tank mode. Instead, they have found security in this most unlikely of places, Geno Smith. The 32 year old former college star was never truly given a chance in the NFL, but somehow in 2022 he has been quite good. His play, along with standout performances from rookie running back Kenneth Walker, has kept this team alive in the hunt for the playoffs. Recently, however, the team has started to slide and the offense hasn’t kept that same energy. It will be a tough task to get back on track on a short week against the best defense in the league. On the other side of the ball for the Seahawks is a rather suspect defense. The unit ranks 30th in total yards allowed and are even one notch worse in rushing yards allowed. Their strength has been the passing defense where defensive back Tariq Woolen has been an interception machine in the secondary, leading all rookies with 6 takeaways. 

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Last week I was afraid of betting on the San Francisco 49ers. Brock Purdy making his first career start did not inspire confidence in me. The result? A 35-7 pounding of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I will not make the same mistake twice. The simple reality with the 49ers is it does not matter who plays quarterback. This team runs its offense through its skill position players. Getting the ball to guys like McCaffery, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk in space is more important than having a QB with immense arm talent. Even without Deebo tonight I think they will still find a way to score. Additionally, Seattle has a terrible run defense and now has to go against one of the best running schemes in the league. On the flip side, I personally have lost faith in Geno and the Seahawks offense. Last week at home against the hapless Carolina Panthers should have been a get-right game, instead it was a loss. Now they have to turn around on a short week and go up against this ferocious 49ers defensive unit.

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The Bet: 49ers -3.5

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 24-13 Seattle Seahawks

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Fantasy Corner:

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The popular pick for single game contests tonight will be Christian McCaffery, and rightfully so. You will not win a showdown slate without playing him. But some real value can be found with Brandon Aiyuk. With Deebo Samuel out, Aiyuk steps up as the #1 wide receiver in San Francisco. But for those who have been paying attention, he has been the top option all year. Aiyuk has more receptions, yards, and touchdowns than Deebo this year and has really come on strong since week 6. Last week he only had 2 catches on 3 targets but he turned that into 57 yards and a touchdown. Make sure you have him starting in all formats.

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Prop Wheel (In order of how much I like them):

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Geno Smith Under 240.5 Passing Yards

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-It is a pretty low number for a guy with 275+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games, but this bet isn’t about Geno, it is about the 49ers. That defense will dial up pressure on him all night, and at 32 years old, Geno isn’t the most mobile of quarterbacks.

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Jauan Jennings Over 25.5 Receiving Yards

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-If you’ve watched a lot of 49ers games the past two seasons then you’ve seen this guy flash up every once in a while. He is a pretty dynamic WR3 and should see more looks tonight with Deebo out. If he runs a lot of crossing routes underneath then this bet really only needs 2 passes to hit.

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Kenneth Walker Under 48.5 Rushing Yards

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-It pains me to give out this prop. Kenny Walker has saved multiple fantasy seasons of mine this year. He has been a borderline league winner off the waiver wire. But tonight will not be his night. He missed the previous game due to injury and now has to come back and face a top ranked defense. If Seattle falls behind early, which I suspect will be the case, they might abandon the ground game which hurts his total even more. By night's end we all might be quoting South Park with, “Oh my god, they killed Kenny!”

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