World Cup Semi-Final Preview: Argentina v Croatia

Both World Cup Semi-Finals feature a soccer powerhouse against an upset hungry nation. Argentina was one of the pre-tournament betting favorites to take home the trophy, and while Croatia reached the final in 2018, the Balkan nation was not expected to reach similar heights this time around.

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Argentina:

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This World Cup run by Argentina is all about its leader, Lionel Messi. Arguably the greatest player of all time, Messi has achieved everything there is in the game of soccer other than winning a World Cup. The 35 year old has led his team to this point in the tournament racking up 4 goals and 2 assists in 5 games. He is the frontrunner for player of the tournament, but he, and all of Argentina, know that nothing matters unless they at least reach the final. 

What separates this Argentina team from the ones of past World Cups is the supporting cast around Messi. He finally has teammates at all levels of the pitch who can contribute to winning matches. Perhaps the most important of these is in goal where Emiliano Martinez has been a revelation the past few years since reemerging as a starting keeper in the Premier League. His 2 saves in the penalty shootout against the Netherlands in the Quarter-Finals are a big reason Argentina is still alive. 

The Argentinian backline is also stronger than they have ever been. At centerback they have 2 Premier League starters in Christian Romero of Tottenham Hotspur and Lisandro Martinez of Manchester United. Nicolas Otamendi, a longtime stalwart of the national team, also starts in between them when Argentina deploys a back 3 or 5.

With all the focus on Messi in attack, many overlook the true strength of this Argentina team, the midfield. Enzo Fernandez is a rising star who has exploded on the scene at this World Cup following a great start to the year at Benfica in the Portuguese League. Alongside him are Rodrigo de Paul and Alexis Mac Alister who start for Atletico Madrid and Brighton & Hove Albion respectively. Each of these 3 midfielders bring a versatile box-to-box skillset that allows them to dominate the middle of the pitch. This doesn’t even cover the long tenured leader of the Argentinian midfield, Leoandro Paredes, who can still put in a good shift for his country.

Alongside Messi in attack is the young star Julian Alvarez. His play at this World Cup has seen him leap over Lautaro Martinez for the starting striker position. The River Plate wonderkid is now the backup to Erling Haaland at Manchester City, but he is still made of extremely high quality. Lautaro can provide a different, if more traditional #9 role in the attack, but he currently has a case of the yips. His inability to put away easy chances in this tournament has frustrated fans and his manager, Lionel Scaloni. Finally, there is the savvy veteran Angel Di Maria who can come off the bench and use his dribbling skills along with his deadly left foot striking to change the course of the game.

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Croatia:

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Four years ago Croatia shocked the world by going to the World Cup Final. Now, four years later, they are on the verge of doing it again. The checkered red and white kit of the Croats has been a sign of death for all who have played them. Their suffocating and systematic shutdown defense has frustrated opponents, and then their clinicality in penalty shootouts has seen them advance twice already. A big reason for this is the play of goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic who has saved more shots than any other keeper in this tournament and is really making himself a household name.

Croatia is heavily committed to defending first. The backline has the veteran leadership of Dejan Lovern mixed with the incredible young talent of Josko Gvardiol. The fullbacks have also contributed to their teams success as Borna Sosa is one of the best assist providers at left back in the world and Josip Juranovic is coming off a magnificent performance against Brazil where he shutdown the shifty winger Vinicius Jr. 

For all the talk about the Croatian defense, the real reason they are able to limit the opponents scoring chances is the midfield. Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, and Marcelo Brozovic have been lights out all tournament. Their ability to provide service to the frontline while also getting back on defense to get numbers behind the ball is extremely impressive, especially for their ages. They dictate the pace of the game and ensure all counter attacks are stopped before they can even begin.

Up front Croatia has several options for goal scoring. Bruno Petkovic has been the main man, and he scored the late extra time equalizer against Brazil, but Andrej Kramaric is just as capable in front of goal. Ivan Perisic always seems to up his play for the national team and his ability on the left side of the attack has been on display all tournament long. Croatia also has a few options off the bench as Marko Livaja, Lovro Majer, and Mislav Orsic are all capable of being impact subs. 

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Breakdown:

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This game will be won and lost in the midfield as it is a strength of both teams. Argentina wants to play through Messi, that is no secret, so it is all about how Croatia deals with that gameplan. Individually marking Messi is not possible so teams must commit multiple players in order to shut him down. That will likely open up space for Argentina’s supporting cast. Croatia will almost dare the South Americans to beat them in any way but with Messi magic. Whether or not Julian Alvarez or Lautaro Martinez can take and finish their chances will be key. At the other end, the Argentina defense can be susceptible, as evidenced by the 2 late goals conceded to the Netherlands. If Croatia can get passes out to the wide areas and whip balls into the box there will be chances to score off headers or second and third balls. 

This will be an extremely cagey game. We have seen Croatia in the late stages of the World Cup before and we know they will want this game to stay low scoring. The Croats are extremely comfortable playing for extra time, and if need be penalties. Argentina is a much more aggressive side who will look to strike early. The first goal could very well be enough to see either side through. In a battle of the seemingly permanent class of Messi and Modric, I tend to favor the magic man, but don’t be surprised at all if the red and white checks end up back in the World Cup Final.

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The Pick:

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The Bet: Under 2.5 Total Goals (90 Minute Line)

Alternate Bet: Draw on the 90 Minute Line

Prediction: Argentina 2-1 Croatia in Extra Time

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