National Championsip Preview

North Carolina (8) v Kansas (1)

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North Carolina might just be the team of destiny. The Tar Heels defeated their ultimate rivals, Duke, in the Final Four and sent Coach K into retirement with a loss. That game alone would have been enough for most UNC fans to say they are happy with this season but with one more game left there is still glory to be won. In February this UNC team found itself on the bubble. Partly because of a misguided anti-ACC bias that the mainstream media had but also partly due to bad losses against teams like Pittsburgh. But the Tar Heels rallied behind first year head coach Hubert Davis and have gone on an improbable run since that moment. Their first half performance in the second round against reigning national champions, Baylor, set the stage for their tournament ride to the title game. UNC is led in the frontcourt by Armando Bacot. The junior from Richmond, Virginia is a big presence in the post and leads the entire country in double-doubles averaging 16 points and 13 rebounds a game. The Tar Heels also have a great guard duo in RJ Davis and Caleb Love. Love is a fearless shooter who has popped off in the tournament with 23, 30, and 28 point games in March. Davis can drive to the hole with speed and finish in the lane as evidenced by his 30 point performance against Baylor in the second round. UNC also features two athletic forwards, Brady Manek can stretch out to the perimeter and drain 3’s while the length of Leaky Black makes him a shutdown defensive player. 

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Kansas is the definition of peaking at the right time. Since an embarrassing 80-62 home loss to Kentucky, Kansas is 16-3 and currently riding a 10 game win streak. Bill Self has his team playing their best ball of the season and they have done it so quietly. With all the focus on the UNC Duke matchup, the Jayhawks dismissed Villanova with ease in the Final Four. Kansas is led by its guard play with this year's Big 12 Player of the Year, Ochai Agbaji. The senior averages 19 points a game while shooting nearly 40% from the 3 point line. He was lights out against Villanova, shooting 6/7 from deep. Behind Agbaji, Kansas has the luxury of playing the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year, Remy Martin. The Arizona State transfer is one of my personal favorites. He missed most of the year due to injury but came right back before the conference tournament and now that his legs are under him, watch out. He can drive the lane and kick out to guys on the perimeter with his elite vision and he also possesses a deadly step back. In the frontcourt, Kansas has David McCormack who has shot above 80% from the field in each of his last two games. The Jayhawks depth shines through here again as Mitch Lightfoot can relieve McCormack off the bench and provide valuable minutes. 

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Matchup to Watch: Armando Bacot v David McCormack

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This is where the game will be won and lost for both teams. Bacot will get his own, that is known. The guy is walking double-double machine. But the question is can he stop McCormack at the other end. Bacot rolled his ankle late in the Duke game and will not be playing at 100%. If he struggles to contain McCormack then Kansas will be able to feed the interior which will also help open up options at the 3 point line as UNC will have to come inside to help Bacot on defense. If McCormack ends up with more points than Bacot then there is no way UNC can win this game. 

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X-Factor: Christian Braun

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While Bacot and McCormack bang away in the post, the rest of the game will be played on the edge. North Carolina is not afraid to jack up 3’s from anywhere at any time. Kansas is a little more selective with their shots but when they get the open look they rarely miss. Christian Braun averages 14 points a game and shoots just under 40% from 3. He started over Martin against Villanova and if he is alongside Agbaji at tip off then this is the guy to watch. The Tar Heels will focus on shutting down Agbaji which will leave Braun open from deep. If he sniffs 20 points in this game Kansas will walk away with the title. 

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The Bet: A Title Teaser- North Carolina +10.5 with Over 144.5 Total Points

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This is a hard game to handicap. My head says Kansas will win rather easily but my heart says there is just something about this UNC team. Fatigue will be a factor. North Carolina doesn’t rotate very much and their core starting 5 will be extremely tired after playing nearly the entire second half against Duke. I think it will be a close game with both teams knocking down shots until about the 4 minute mark when Kansas bunkers down and comes away with a win. 

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Prediction: Kansas 77-70 North Carolina

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Side Bets for Those Who Hate Teasers:

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UNC +4.5

Under 152.5 Total Points

Kansas Moneyline

David McCormack Over Total Points

David McCormack Over Total Rebounds

David McCormack Over Total Points + Rebounds

Brady Manek Over 2.5 Made 3 Pointers

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