Second Round, Day 2 Preview 3-22-21

(7) Oregon v. (2) Iowa

Oregon advanced to the second round with a no-contest victory over VCU who had to forfeit due to Covid-19 issues within the program. It was an unfortunate end to VCU’s season and also probably not the way Oregon wanted to get a First Round “win”. The Ducks were an underrated team all year who won 21 of their 27 games and came into the tournament 8-2 in their last 10. Iowa handled Grand Canyon in their opening game, winning by a score of 86-74. If you are the Hawkeyes you would have liked a wider margin, and more defensive efficiency against a team like Grand Canyon, but a 12 point win is still solid. It is hard to preview this game, seeing as Oregon has not played in the tournament yet, but with such a high total you have to imagine Oregon might be rusty and could be off the mark early in this contest.

The Bet: Under 149.5 Total Points

(8) Oklahoma v. (1) Gonzaga

Oklahoma battled hard in a back-and-forth game against Missouri in round 1 and came away with a tight 4 point win. The Sooners were impressive considering the absence of their second leading scorer, De’Vion Harmon, who is out due to Covid-19 issues. Gonzaga absolutely crushed Norfolk State in round 1, as expected, and put up 98 points in the process. The Bulldogs are pretty much unstoppable and in a tournament filled with upsets so far, they look to be the only bulletproof team left. If Oklahoma has a snowball's chance in hell to win this game, they know their defense will have to rise to the occasion. This game could be within 10 points at halftime before Gonzaga pulls away.

The Bet: Under 154.5 Total Points

(14) Abilene Christian v. (11) UCLA

Two improbable double digit seeds will meet this afternoon with a chance to go to the Sweet 16 on the line. Abilene Christian survived a rock fight against Texas in round 1 and won on a pair of questionable last second free throws. The Wildcats shot an awful 30% from the field but they forced 22 turnovers on the defensive side of the ball. UCLA is seeking to do what only one other team in tournament history has done, and that is win a First Four play-in game and then make it to the second weekend. The Bruins really controlled their game against BYU on Saturday and guard Johnny Juzang was the reason why. He has scored over 50 points in the Bruins two games so far and whether they can advance will be up to him.

The Bet: Abilene Christian Spread

(13) Ohio v. (5) Creghton 

The only upset of round 1 in the West Region was Ohio over Virginia in a last minute comeback effort in a game they trailed the entire time. Ohio will live and die by the hot/coldness of their starting guard, James Preston, and his slightly above average play helped them beat a Virginia team that tried to sleepwalk against an inferior opponent. Creighton survived an absolute scare from UCSB in round 1, and needed a last comeback to secure a 1 point win. The Bluejays, and their controversy ridden head coach, got lucky drawing Ohio here and have a much better chance to advance to the Sweet 16 than they deserve. In my opinion, neither of these teams are good, and both are just playing for the chance to get demolished by Gonzaga next round. 

The Bet: Under 149.5 Total Points

(8) LSU v. (1) Michigan

LSU really impressed some people in their 15 point win over St Bonaventure in the first round. Analytics nerds loved the Bonnies as a team to possibly make a deep run and even knock off Michigan, so much for that. LSU plays an NBA style game where they will push the pace, feed athletic big men who can dunk, or kick it out to guards who can shoot from deep. Michigan is the Big Ten’s last hope for a deep tournament run as the “best conference in the country” only has two teams left out of the nine that qualified. Michigan is well balanced, and will defend you hard, feeding the inside for points in the paint. Metrics favor Michigan, but style of play leads me to believe that LSU has a real chance here. 

The Bet: LSU Spread

(5) Colorado v. (4) FSU

The only true 4-5 game we will get this tournament features two Power-5 teams who are feeling themselves at the right time. Colorado absolutely demolished Georgetown in the first round, scoring 96 points and shooting an unreal 64% from 3-Point range. Colorado is a good team, and on the year they finished 25th in the country in 3-Point shooting, but their percentage was 37.7%. There is no way Colorado can replicate their numbers from the game against Georgetown against an FSU team that plays legitimate defense. FSU won by 10 in their first round game over UNC-Greensboro, yet they did it without making a single 3-Pointer as they went 0-9. Florida State ranked 15th in the country in 3-Point percentage on the year with a 38% average. This game will be the tale of the 3-Point ball and which team regresses or rises to their normal numbers will win this game.

The Bet: Colorado Spread

(10) Maryland v. (2) Alabama

Maryland beat a good Connecticut team by 9 in their first round game. The Terrapins were not a team I had winning a game as they do not have one thing they do particularly well. The hallmark of their team is that they don’t turn the ball over, and that could come in handy against an Alabama team that will take risks. The Crimson Tide had to fight their way past Iona in the first round, but eventually pulled away for a comfortable win. Much like LSU, Alabama plays a pro-style game where it will be nothing but 3’s and dunks. The key for Maryland this game will be how their athletes defend and if they can keep up with the run-and-gun style of Alabama.

The Bet: Over 139 Total Points

(6) USC v. (3) Kansas

USC looked good against Drake in round 1, winning 72-56 and were never really in trouble. The Mobley brothers lead the way for the Trojans, scoring 32 points combined. Evan Mobley is the focal point of the USC offense as the dynamic big man can get fed in a variety of ways. Kansas received a big boost yesterday as it was revealed Jalen Wilson will be dressed and available for this game despite being previously ruled out for the first weekend due to Covid-19 issues. Wilson was their third leading scorer during the regular season. The way Bill Self worded the return of Wilson sounded more like he would be there but wouldn’t really play, but maybe that was mental gymnastics to throw off USC’s coaching staff. Either way, USC is favored, and that is disrespectful to a blue blood in March.

The Bet: Kansas Spread

Fancy a Parlay?

Iowa, Gonzaga & Alabama to Win