National Championsip Preview

Baylor (1) v. Gonzaga (1)

Baylor handled in-state rivals Houston in the Final Four to book their ticket to tonight’s National Championship game. Baylor has run through their path to the finale with winning margins of 24, 13, 11, 9, and 19 consecutively. The Bears have a top 30 offensive and defensive efficiency rating which every National Champion of the past 12 years has also had. Baylor’s offense is run through their guards who score the majority of their points. Davion Mitchell is an NBA caliber player who has the athleticism to drive the ball but also step back and drain jump shots. MaCio Teague is the team's leader and pulse keeper who will distribute the ball to every corner of the court while Jared Butler is a microwave player who can get hot and go off at any point in time. Baylor is extremely dynamic and will put in as much effort on defense as they will on offense.

Gonzaga is the unanimous #1 team in the country and deserves to play in tonight’s game. The Bulldog’s needed a wild buzzer beater from Jalen Suggs to defeat the Cinderella UCLA team in the Final Fou,r but that does not diminish their otherwise stellar tournament run. Gonzaga had beaten every other team they had faced in March by double digits before needing overtime to dispatch the Bruins. Gonzaga is the #1 offense in the country and a big reason for that is their inside-outside threat. Drew Timme controls the post and will dominate points in the paint against any defense. Jalen Suggs and Corey Kispert patrol the perimeter and each give a different dynamic to the offense. Suggs has elite athleticism, like Davion Mitchell, and will put defenders on skates or in the dust with his footwork. Corey Kispert is a lights out shooter when hot, and while he hasn’t necessarily gone off this tournament, his ability to catch and shoot off screens is extremely dangerous. Gonzaga is not as good as Baylor when it comes to defense but they will commit to shutting down the opponents top offensive threat.

Matchup to Watch: Drew Timme vs. Mark Vital and Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua

Drew Timme has dominated opponents all tournament long yet he really hasn’t faced any elite defensive team yet. USC was perhaps the toughest opponent for Timme when it came to interior defense and Evan Mobley was more of a long big man/rim protector than a post move stopper. If Vital and Big Jonathan, as he is called, can stop Timme from using his strong footwork to bank in post shots then Gonzaga will need to alter their gameplan. 

X-Factor: Corey Kispert 

With the exception of their First Round game against Norfolk State, Kispert has registered under 20 points in every tournament appearance despite averaging 18.8 points per game all season. Kispert is an extremely dangerous player who can not be left alone. Any team that focuses on Timme down low or tries to take away Suggs up top can get burned by Kispert on the wings and in the corner. If Kispert gets hot tonight then Gonzaga will cruise to victory, but if he doesn’t get open looks or isn’t fed enough in the first half to get into a rhythm then Gonzaga will miss his touch down the stretch and could lose. 

The Bet: Baylor Spread

Gonzaga is better on paper and on the court but to favor them by 4.5 is a little much. When this game was scheduled to be played in the regular season, before Covid-19 cancelled it, Gonzaga was only a 2.5 point favorite.

Prediction: Baylor 88-85 Gonzaga

I think Baylor finds a way to shut down or extremely limit Drew Timme inside which will force Gonzaga to rely on Suggs and Kispert from the perimeter, an area where Baylor plays strong defense as well. Gonzaga’s late OT game against UCLA will leave them a little more drained and you also have to wonder about the come-down effect after such a thrilling victory. Being able to watch that game live will afford Scott Drew more gameplanning time which he will use to out-coach Mark Few who will leave the tournament without a championship once again.