Final Four Preview

(2) Houston v. (1) Baylor

The Final Four begins on Saturday with an all-Texas showdown between Houston and Baylor. The former SouthWest Conference rivals faceoff with a ticket to Monday’s National Championship game on the line. Kelvin Sampson and Houston have gotten to the Final Four with the easiest path in tournament history. The #2 seed Cougars have only defeated double digit seeds in each of their first 4 tournament games. Houston has played well in all those games, especially defensively, but will be up against a completely different challenge today. Baylor enters today’s Final Four game on the heels of a 9 point win over Arkansas in the Elite Eight. Baylor has controlled every game they have played thus far in the tournament and know that playing on Monday is the minimum target for this team. Baylor’s destiny is to play Gonzaga for all the marbles and I have 100% faith in this Bears team cruising this afternoon against a fraudulent Houston team that should have lost to #10 Rutgers in the Second Round.

The Bet: Baylor Spread

(11) UCLA v. (1) Gonzaga

The second matchup of Final Four Saturday is the Cinderella Bruins against the top overall seed Bulldogs. It is not very often a historically good team with multiple past championships is considered an underdog but UCLA has shocked everyone with their tournament run. They were largely picked to lose their First Four play-in game against Michigan State and after pulling off a comeback win in OT they have surged all the way to the Final Four. Their defense was the MVP against Michigan in the Elite Eight where they were committed to helping out on the interior and stifling Juwan Howard’s squad. Gonzaga is head and shoulders above everyone else this season and their tournament run is indicative of this. They walked past USC in the Elite Eight and demolished every other team before that. Gonzaga is undefeated on the season and the biggest reason why is their balanced play. They will go inside to big man Drew Timme but they also have knockdown shooters like Corey Kispert and Jalen Suggs who will force you to guard the perimeter as well. I don’t see Gonzaga losing here, in fact I see them winning by double digits, but I think that the final margin of victory will be closer to 12 points than the 15 Vegas would tell you.

The Bet: UCLA Spread

Other Bets to Consider:

Baylor v. Houston First Half Under

Gonzaga First Half Spread