Elite 8 Preview

(12) Oregon State v. (2) Houston

With their win on Saturday against Loyola Chicago, Oregon State has officially had the best tournament performance of any #12 seed in the history of March Madness. The Beavers have proved everybody wrong, from the Pac-12 Conference Tournament all the way to the Elite 8. Oregon State has been underdogs of 7 or more points in each of their 3 tournament games so far and tonight Vegas has again underestimated the Beavers by 7.5 points. Houston is a strong defensive team and is led offensively by its guard play, specifically Quentin Grimes, who has failed to score double digits points in a game only once since January. The Cougars are good, there is a reason they earned a #2 seed, but their path to the Elite 8 has been against a 15, 10, and 11 seed whereas Oregon State has gone through a 5, 4, and 8 seed. I think this line is criminally disrespecting the Beavers and if anything I think they could win outright.

The Bet: Oregon State Spread

(3) Arkansas v. (1) Baylor

Everything about this game smells. The line smells, the recent play of these two teams smells, even the over/under smells a little. I feel like Vegas has set up bettors for a trap whichever way this game goes. Arkansas has struggled to get to this point in the tournament. The Razorbacks have come back from double-digit deficits in each of their 3 tournament games so far and the fact that they needed a poor bounce off the rim to save them from a buzzer beater defeat from Oral Roberts makes me think this team has no business being on the same court as Baylor. On the other hand, Baylor is coming off its own worst performance of the tournament against Villanova where they faced a halftime deficit and used Villanova’s late second half turnover bug to fuel a sizable win in the end. This game is only going 1 of 2 ways, either Baylor blows out Arkansas and proves to the world that they are the only foil to Gonzaga, or Arkansas doesn’t just cover the spread, but wins outright in a close nail biter. Regardless, of the 6 combined games these two teams have played in the tournament, only 1 has gone over 148.5 points, which is the total tonight.

The Bet: Under 148.5 Total Points

Other Best Bets to Consider:

Oregon State Moneyline

Baylor First Half Spread