Day 2, First Round Preview 3-20-21

(12) Georgetown v. (5) Colorado

The Hoyas went on an unbelievable run in the Big East tournament to win the championship and clinch the auto-bid. This Georgetown team was below average all year, and lost double digit regular season games, before legendary head coach Patrick Ewing motivated them at Madison Square Garden. Colorado has been an underrated team all season. They were in-and-out of the top-25 rankings most of the season, yet their underlying numbers on offensive and defensive efficiency show they are much better than a fringe team. The numbers point to the Buffaloes, but momentum points to the Hoyas, and no game is easy in March.

The Bet: Georgetown Spread

(13) UNC-Greensboro v. (4) Florida State

UNCG would be a popular upset pick if it weren’t for their opponents. The Spartans went 21-8 on the season and finished the year winning 8 of their last 10. Florida State, however, is perhaps the best good team no one is talking about. Last year, before Covid-19 ended the season, FSU was a shoe-in for a #1 seed. Now granted, they lost their two best players from that year to the NBA Draft, but head coach Leonard Hamilton has shaped up another good squad this year. The Seminoles will guard you board to board and that is likely something UNCG hasn’t seen all year.

The Bet: Under 145 Total Points

(14) Eastern Washington v. (3) Kansas

Eastern Washington finished the season winning 9 of their past 10 games and won the Big Sky Conference Tournament despite finishing 3rd in the regular season. The Eagles have a key statistic on their side too, free throw shooting, where they ranked 9th in the entire country. Kansas is obviously a blue blood and perennial favorite to cut the nets down, however they are weaker than normal this year. They failed to win the Big 12, which rarely happens, and are also going to be missing at least 2 players due to Covid-19 issues picked up at the Big 12 Tournament last weekend.

The Bet: Eastern Washington Spread

(9) St. Bonaventure v. (8) LSU

The Bonnies are a sneaky good team who finished the year going 7-3 in their last 10 and won the A10 Conference Title over VCU. St Bonaventure boasts an elite defense whose efficiency metrics rate them among the top-25 teams in the country. LSU, on the other hand, is an elite offensive team who’s efficiency rating is top-10 in the country. It will be strength versus strength in this good old fashioned 8-9 battle. While I believe LSU will win, I do believe it will be close

The Bet: St Bonaventure Spread

(16) Texas Southern v. (1) Michigan

Texas Southern did their conference, and fellow HBCUs proud, when they won their First Four game the other night. The Tigers do have some things in their favor, including a current 10 game winning streak. Michigan was once considered Gonzaga’s top contender for #1 team in the country before playing so-so basketball down the stretch. Michigan is good, make no mistake about it, but without starting guard Isiah Livers, who recently picked up an injury, this game could be a smaller blowout than previously anticipated.

The Bet: Under 142 Total Points

(12) UC Santa Barbara v. (5) Creighton

UCSB is another popular upset pick, and there are many reasons why.The Gauchos are 9-1 in their last 10 and blew out their opponent in the Big West Conference Title Game. They also shoot free throws far better than Creighton, by nearly 10 percentage points, and their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are both top-25. Creighton has had to deal with some off-the-court issues recently, pertaining to their head coach, which has distracted the team from playing good basketball. I still believe Creighton will win this game, but it will be tight until that final horn.

The Bet: UCSB Spread

(15) Iona v. (2) Alabama

You might recognize an old face prowling the sidelines today as Rick Pitino leads Iona against Alabama, yes that Rick Pitino. The Gaels are in the tournament thanks to a late season run that saw them win 8 of their last 10 to win the conference title despite finishing third during the regular season. Alabama is a shock team to many around the country considering their prowess as a football school and rather averageness as a basketball school. The Crimson Tide mainly do one thing, and that is shoot the 3 ball, and oftentimes in March you can live or die on the hot/coldness of the 3 ball. Pitino’s teams typically play good all around basketball making this game be less of a shoutout than Vegas sees it.

The Bet: Under 147 Total Points

(11) Drake v. (6) Southern Caolifornia

Drake had an admirable comeback effort to down Wichita State in the First Four on Thursday. It was Drake's first tournament win in decades. While Drake deserves credit for getting to this game, the truth is that they are not a good team, and neither was Wichita State to be fair. USC boasts a top-25 player in the country in big man Evan Mobley who will absolutely dominate Drake on the interior. USC had an average regular season but is actually primed to make a run to the Elite 8 seeing their draw in the bracket. Take the favorite here, it will be a blow out.

The Bet: USC Spread

Fancy a Parlay? 

FSU, Alabama, Kansas & USC to Win