Will’s Picks - Week 3

Week 2 was a tough one for me. Batting .250 isn’t terrible, but when it comes to gambling, hand up, I’ve got to be better. Was I overthinking everything? Was I overthinking the fact that I didn’t want to overthink everything? Am I just bad at this? 

Don’t know what exactly happened, but what I know for sure is that Week 3 looks delicious. Let’s hit the reset button, buckle down, and cut the bullshit. 

Buffalo v Washington Over 45.5

Watching Buffalo so far has been like watching Jameis Winston crow-hop into a deep ball - not a chance in hell you know what’s going to happen next. Coming into Week 1 I was convinced that they were a juggernaut. It’s not easy to roll into Pittsburgh as a touchdown favorite, but somehow the Bills did. In response, Mike Tomlin decided to introduce Josh Allen to TJ Watt and a few of his friends, and I’m sure you’re aware of the result. In Week 2 I overcorrected, put too much faith in Miami, and you can bet your ass Buffalo beat the brakes off the Dolphins. 

For the time being, I will avoid betting on or against Buffalo, but I don’t understand how this total won’t go above 45.

“But Will, the under hit in both of the Bills’ first two games.”

Shut up. I know that, but like I said, this team is unpredictable and I think there are legitimate reasons for the low scores in game one and two. Overinflated expectations and rust hurt them in Week 1, and against Miami they got no help from their opponent. I expect Josh Allen to feast on a Washington secondary that gave up 29 points to a less accurate, more incompetent Eli Manning, and I expect a respectable amount of points from Taylor Heinicke and the Washington offense. The Bills defense is solid, but Washington has the ability to score, and they won’t need to do much to help out. The Bills have hit the over in 11 out of their last 16 games, and I expect that trend to continue here.

• Bills 30, Washington 20

Los Angeles Chargers (+6.5) v Kansas City

There are few things in life scarier than betting against Patrick Mahomes. Spiders? A “We need to talk” text? Not a fan of either of those, but Andy Reid’s crew gives me nightmares.

That being said, I have always been incredibly brave and courageous (humble brag), so give me LA +6.5 in this one. Even though the Chargers haven’t been super impressive so far, I still have a lot of confidence in Justin Herbert. He’s had some trouble finding the endzone through the first two weeks, but he’s been playing well regardless, and he’ll toss a few TDs against a pedestrian KC defense. The Chiefs have given up an average of 33 points so far, and Herbert + Keenan Allen have the ability to get hot and keep it close. Even though Mahomes might go absolutely nuclear, the rest of his squad hasn’t helped him cover a spread yet this season, and this game won’t be any different. The Chiefs win, but the Chargers cover. 

• Chiefs 27, Chargers 24

Las Vegas (-4) v Miami

Starting off the season hot isn’t anything new to Las Vegas, but it usually comes to an end fast. Last year they put up 30+ in Weeks 1 and 2, but then came crashing back to earth in Week 3 against the Patriots, finishing the season at a more predictable level.

This year they’ll cool off as well, but I don’t expect their winning streak to come to an end in Week 3. I can promise you that I’ll never say Derek Carr is elite, but he has been playing out of his mind lately, and that’ll continue on Sunday. Honestly, I think Tua Tagovailoa stinks, but Jacoby Brissett looked even worse in relief last week, and it’s hard not to vomit thinking about Jacoby Brissett, Myles Gaskin, and Will Fuller as the new Miami “Big 3”. It’s a tough time to be a ‘Fins fan, and I expect Las Vegas to dominate at home, no matter who plays for them at running back. Brissett might lead a garbage-time drive to make it look closer than it was, but give me the Raiders and the points.

• Raiders 28, Dolphins 21

The Puppy Parlay

I’m not going to lie to you, the debut of the Puppy Parlay did not turn out great in Week 2. However, I’ve done some reflecting, and I don’t think my underdogs lost last week because of a lack of skill or anything else related to the games themselves. My new understanding of the situation is that I wasn’t putting enough good vibes and positivity into the world, so that’ll change this week. This is a fundamentally foolproof plan, and Week 3 is the week of believing in the DAWGS. Let’s will these teams to victory, and let’s get rich in the process. 

The Bet: Moneyline Parlay (+1093): Atlanta, Cincinnati, and New Orleans 

Atlanta ML v New York Giants (+123)

Both of these teams stink, and I can promise you I will not be watching this game. In a battle of the undefeateds, I’ll take Matt Ryan’s experience over Daniel Jones’ incompetence. 

Cincinnati ML v Pittsburgh (+140)

The Steelers came back down to earth in Week 2 as the Raiders were able to prove that Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t as good as we thought. The Steelers are a better team overall, but you can throw out the record books when these two AFC North teams get together (s/o Boomer and TJ), and this will be a prove-it game for Joey Burreaux. Cincy wins a close one in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans ML v New England (+123)

Yes, I am a bit scared of the mental battle that will occur between Jameis Winston and Bill Belichick. Counter point: fuck it. It’s fun to bet on Jameis, and there’s no way the Saints will play that poorly two weeks in a row. New England has had a cupcake schedule so far, so this will be the first major test against a legit defense for Mac Jones. The kid will make smart decisions and keep it close, but the Saints will pull out a win in Week 3 in Foxborough. 

Let’s ride. 

Will