Thursday Night Football Preview | Bills v Patriots

Thursday Night Football Preview

‍

Buffalo Bills (-4) v New England Patriots (43.5)

‍

The first Thursday Night Football game of December pits two AFC East division rivals against each other in a matchup that will surely impact the playoff picture. Both the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots are a week removed from playing on Thanksgiving Day so the rest is equal, as is the hunger. Buffalo is a road favorite in this matchup but there are no easy visits to Foxborough when Bill Belichick is coaching on the opposite sideline.

The Bills are currently tied for the division lead with the Miami Dolphins with both teams sitting at 8-3. But if you asked most NFL fans they would say this juggernaut of a team has underperformed. Recent close games against poor teams in Detroit and Cleveland, coupled with a short two game losing streak to the Vikings and the Jets, had this die-hard fan base panicking a bit. Josh Allen has put up some great numbers this year at quarterback but his injury concerns and decision making, especially in the red zone, has cost the team. Finding consistency down the stretch will be crucial to getting back on a Super Bowl path but it won’t be any easier with the news today that star pass rusher Von Miller has been placed on IR. 

New England is currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in as their 6-5 record has them one game back of fellow division rivals the New York Jets. The calling card of the Patriots for years has been consistency, but the current offense led by quarterback Mac Jones has been anything but that. They have some games where it looks like strides have been made, like last week's 33-26 loss to the Vikings in which Jones threw for 382 yards and 2 touchdowns. Other games, such as the 10-3 win over the Jets the week prior, are struggle fests where the defense and special teams have to bail out the offense. Injury concerns are also apparent for the Patriots as running back Damien Harris has been ruled out for this contest and top receiver Jakobi Meyers is questionable. 

‍

The Pick:

‍

When it comes to betting lines this game has a strong whiff of stink. There is no question the Bills are the better team, but laying 4 points on the road in New England in a primetime game is a big risk. Both defenses are in the top-15 in the league when it comes to total yards allowed but the high volume offense of Buffalo could make that under 43.5 a little dangerous. I expect this game to start out slow, with both teams feeling each other out. The Patriots have a lot to play for as they battle for playoff positioning, but the Bills need wins as well because the difference between winning your division and being a wild card team is massive come playoff time. By halftime it will be close and relatively low scoring before the Bills quality pulls them away in the second half. The Patriots will have a late game chance to come back, perhaps down two scores needing a quick one and an onside kick. That is where the backdoor cover possibility comes in and scares me off the favorite. I will be going with a cautious play here that I typically don’t recommend but it works well for standalone games like this. 

‍

The Bet: Same Game Parlay of Bills Moneyline and Under 50.5 Total Points (+115)

Prediction: Buffalo Bills 24-20 New England Patriots

‍

Fantasy Corner:

‍

All aboard!!! That was the last call for the Rhamondre Stevenson hype train, and boy let me tell you, seats are filling up fast. The second-year running back out of Oklahoma was impressive in his first year, earning carries and targets as a rookie in a Bill Belichick led offense. Now, he has fully exploded onto the scene in his sophomore season. He is running back #8 on the year in fantasy and will get even more chances tonight with Damien Harris ruled out. His ability as a runner is known, but his pass catching prowess is where he shines in PPR formats. Load him up as your captain in daily fantasy showdown slates and reap the benefits of those added points on Mac Jones dump offs.

‍

Prop Wheel:

‍

If there is one thing the Patriots love to do on defense it is limit the opposing team's best player. In the Bills offense that is obviously Josh Allen, but no defense can truly limit him, which means New England will be focused on stopping wide receiver Stefan Diggs tonight. Diggs is the #1 WR in fantasy this year and sees double digit targets in most of his games. If he gets locked up tonight, look to Isaiah McKenzie as the benefactor. McKenzie popped off on Thanksgiving going for 96 yards and a touchdown while catching 6 of 10 targets. He is the Bills slot receiver and will be out there in all 3-WR sets, which Buffalo loves to run. He saw a season high 73% snap rate last week and head coach Sean McDermott complimented his work ethic in practice. His yardage prop is at 31.5 and his receptions prop is at 2.5, I will be taking the over on both and hammering the latter.

‍