Denver Broncos v Jacksonville Jaguars
The Broncos impressed in their week 1 win over the Giants. Their defense lived up to the preseason hype and only allowed 13 points. Teddy “Two Gloves” Bridgewater showed good poise in the pocket which was something Denver lacked with Drew Lock under center. Jacksonville put up a big stinker in week 1 when they got blown out by the consensus worst team in the league, Houston. It's one of those games that leaves everyone wondering what the hell Urban Meyer was thinking to come out of retirement and take over one of the worst franchises in the NFL. I do believe Trevor Lawrence will be special but it will take time and I doubt it shows up today against one of the best secondaries in the NFL.
The Bet: Parlay: Broncos Moneyline+Under 50.5 Total Points
Fantasy Football Super Starter: Cortland Sutton-The Broncos WR is the new #1 following Jerry Jeudy’s trip to IR which means he will see an increased target share from Bridgewater. Teddy Two Gloves loves to throw underneath crossing routes which allow for massive fantasy points in PPR formats and the ability to run after the catch.
Buffalo Bills v Miami Dolphins
The Bills laid an egg in week 1 as their offense just wasn’t ready to play in a 23-16 loss to the Steelers. Josh Allen had an MVP caliber season last year and is the straw that stirs the drink in Western New York. He and his top receiver Stefon Diggs will need to get back on the same page like they were last season. Miami locked down the defense last week in a low scoring win over New England. The Dolphins are still looking for Tua Tagovailoa to take the next step and become a game breaking QB, a next step I do not see him taking. This will be a test for the young QB as he goes up against one of the best shutdown corners in the game, Tre'davious White. Its early in the season but this is a can’t lose for Buffalo
The Bet: HAMMER Bills Moneyline
Fantasy Football Super Starter: Jalen Waddle-The rookie WR was good in week 1 as he caught a touchdown pass from his college QB. The Alabama product was always destined for a good first year in the league but with Will Fuller still out, shockingly NOT due to injury, he will keep getting increased looks and volume is king in fantasy football.
Houston Texans v Cleveland Browns
Everyone and their mothers thought Houston was going to be the worst team in the NFL this season. Well, in week 1 they hung up 37 points in a rout over the Jaguars. I still believe the Texans are a truly terrible team and that is reflected in the ridiculous spread in this game. Cleveland hung around with the mighty Chiefs in week 1 before a late game breakdown cost them a chance at an upset road win. The Browns are still without top WR Odell Beckham Jr but oddly enough they play better without him. Expect Cleveland to just run it down the Texans throat for 60 minutes and come away with a double digit win.
The Bet: See My Parlay
DFS Must Play: Nick Chubb-The Browns run one of the most run-heavy schemes in the NFL and Nick Chubb is arguably the best “pure runner” in the NFL. He is fast, strong, and has great vision to hit the hole and cut back. If he doesn't hit 100 yards rushing I will convert to Mormonism.
Cincinnati Bengals v Chicago Bears
The Bengals scored an upset win in week 1 as they downed the Vikings in overtime. Joe Burrow led the way and he found his good young receivers all over the field. The Bengals are officially spicy as they don’t have the talent to win consistently but they have the skill position players to always put up a fight. Chicago was dismal in week 1 as the Rams curb stopped them in LA. The Bears have an identity crisis as their typical strong spot, defense, looks to be terrible and their QB controversy is distracting the team and coaching staff. This game is basically a pick ‘em on the line but I do not have enough confidence in either teams head coach or defense to pick a winner which means it's time to take the over and root for points
The Bet: Over 44.5 Total Points
Fantasy Football Super Starter: Ja’Marr Chase-There seems to be a theme with this tidbit, rookie WR. Chase was subject to criticism after a poor preseason full of drops and a misinterpreted interview quote made him look like a bust. He showed out in week 1 with over 100 yards and a touchdown. Chicago has a terrible secondary that just got burned by the Rams in week 1, lock Chase into your lineups.
San Francisco 49ers v Philadelphia Eagles
San Fran scored a billion points on the Lions in week 1 but also allowed a million as Detroit nearly had a miraculous comeback. To make matters worse for the 49ers they lost their top CB to a season ending injury and their starting RB. San Fran is well coached and can comeback from anything but this will be a test on the road on the East Coast. Philly thoroughly outplayed the Falcons in week 1 and impressed many football fans and pundits alike. Jalen Hurts led the offense very well and shockingly the defense came to play after a year where they were among the worst in the league. I believe SF comes through with the win but it will be close and could be very high scoring.
The Bet: Eagles Spread+Over Teaser
Fantasy Football Super Starter: Devonta Smith-You guessed it, another rookie WR. Smith also caught a touchdown in week 1 and was all over the field. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner walked into this depleted receiving core as the #1 target and he already has built in chemistry with his former college QB, Jalen Hurts. With the 49ers missing a key member of the secondary, Smith could eat on Sunday.
New Orleans Saints v Carolina Panthers
New Orleans was absolutely lights out in week 1 as they demolished, and I mean demolished, the Packers 38-3. The Saints shutdown Green Bay and their offense was clinical as Jameis Winston threw 5 touchdown passes on less than 25 total attempts. I am a firm believer in Jameis Winston and Sean Payton and they get a matchup here that they can exploit once again. Carolina got a close week 1 win over the Jets but it was far from convincing. Sam Darnold is still a bust in my mind and their defense is still a work in progress. Christian McCaffery is obviously a beast but he can only take this team so far.
The Bet: Saints Spread
Fantasy Football Sit ‘Em: Robby Anderson-The Panthers WR did not look great in week 1 as he was almost exclusively used as a deep threat. His viability last year was based on short yardage catches and production in PPR formats but if he is back to his old boom-or-bust self then this is not the game to use him. This Saints defense was top-5 last year and just shut down Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Imagine what they will do to Sam Darnold and Robby Anderson.
Los Angeles Rams v Indianapolis Colts
The Rams outclassed the Bears on Sunday Night Football in week 1 as they won by 20 points. LA has an elite QB now in Matt Stafford to go along with an elite defense, this is a dangerous team. Indianapolis did not show up in week 1 against the Seahawks as they got kind of blown out. Carson Wentz was coming off a foot injury in the preseason but he needs to be better if this team has any chance of making the playoffs. Additionally, the normally strong Colts defense and O-Line was absent in week 1 so they too need to improve. I think the Rams win this one but on the road traveling East, this could be closer than people imagine.
The Bet: Colts Spread+Under Teaser
Fantasy Football Super Starter: Matt Stafford-He threw for over 300 yards and 3 TD’s in week 1 including two long bombs. The Colts in week 1 gave up the most long completion as Russell Wilson kept going deep on them. Expect Stafford to convert on at least one deep shot to go along with a short TD pass to TE Tyler Higbee leading to over 20 fantasy points on the day.
Las Vegas Raiders v Pittsburgh Steelers
The Raiders scored an upset win in week 1 over the Ravens in overtime. Las Vegas looked like a different team as their defense showed up when it mattered most and Derek Carr looked rather poised in the pocket. I do not expect this version of the Raiders to last, it never does. Pittsburgh got rather lucky in week 1 as a special teams TD bailed out a terrible performance from their offense. Big Ben might just be the worst QB in the league now which means they need to rely on scheme and short passing+YAC to move the ball. This game is a trap all around, on both the spread and the total, so go find a game sack prop and take the over. Both teams have good D-Lines and the Steelers have a terrible O-Line with an immobile QB and the Raiders are missing at least one starter on their O-Line
The Bet: Sack Prop Over
DFS Starter: Najee Harris-Another rookie in this column but this one had a bad week 1. Harris hardly got going on the ground but I expect that to change on Sunday. The one area the Raiders defense failed in week 1 was the run defense and that is where this RB will thrive. Harris did not come off the field once in week 1 and again, volume is king in fantasy football.
New England Patriots v New York Jets
Two 0-1 teams go at each other to end the early slate here. The Patriots barely lost in week 1 to Miami as a late fumble cost their chance at a game winning field goal. Mac Jones looked solid in his NFL debut and will look to continue that in a much better matchup against a poor Jets defense. New York was close in their loss to the Panthers but it was really not as close as the box score indicates. A late garbage time TD made it a one scored game in the end. I do not believe in Zach Wilson and firmly think he will be average at best over the course of his career. In the battle of two rookie QBs the indicator you should look at is defense and coaching, both are significant advantages for New England.
The Bet: See My Parlay
Fantasy Football Super Starter: Damien Harris-The Patriots RB had a costly fumble late in their week 1 loss but assuming he still starts and plays the early down role he should have a great game. The Patriots operate in a run heavy scheme and the Jets have a poor all around defense. This matchup is worth the Flex start alone.
Minnesota Vikings v Arizona Cardinals
The Vikings lost a shocker in week 1 as they fell in overtime to the Bengals. Kirk Cousins put up an impressive stat line but his actual performance was worse than the numbers indicated. Minnesota has had a tumultuous offseason with Covid vaccination drama and it just doesn't look like their team is on the same page. Arizona was on the money in week 1 as they demolished the Titans in Tennessee. Kyler Murray was his usual dynamic self and he targeted elite receiver Deandre Hopkins all day. Additionally, the Cardinals were strong on defense which was unexpected entering this season, especially with such an offensive minded head coach. I don’t think the Cardinals are for real when it comes to a division title but I have zero confidence in the Vikings getting their act together in time for kickoff.
The Bet: Cardinals Spread
Fantasy Football Season Stash: Rondale Moore-The rookie receiver looked strong in week 1 and he is only bound for more looks as the season progresses. Larry Fitzgerald does not look like he will play this season and AJ Green is a shell of his former self. The only competition Moore has for WR2 in Arizona is Christian Kirk and I expect the rookie to be getting the majority of looks by mid season. He went undrafted in most leagues so pick him up on the waiver wire and stash him on your bench for later in the year.
Atlanta Falcons v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons were just outmatched in week 1 as the Eagles took the screws to them. Atlanta used to be known for having an electric offense but after a 6 point output in week 1 they are anything but electric. The reigning Super Bowl champion Buccaneers picked up where they left off last season by scoring points at will. Tampa won a shootout in week 1 over the Cowboys but their defense was extremely underwhelming. Their run stopping was strong but they got torched by Dak Prescott's arm. They will look to put a complete game together in this one where they are favored by double digits.
The Bet: Under 51.5 Total Points
Fantasy Football Sit ‘Em: Ronald Jones-The Buccaneers RB was used very sparingly in week 1 after an early fumble. Head Coach Bruce Arians is known for having a zero tolerance policy when it comes to fumbles and in a RB competition with Lenny Fournette, Jones has surely already fallen into the #2 spot. Keep him on your bench and as soon as he has a good game, sell him high.
Dallas Cowboys v Los Angeles Chargers
The Cowboys nearly pulled off an upset win in week 1 as they went toe-to-toe with the reigning Super Bowl champs from Tampa. The only negative in that game was the Dallas defense which was not able to stop the Bucs offense from moving the ball. Dallas’ defense was historically bad last season and it looks like they haven't made any stride to improve the problem. The Chargers looked strong in week 1 in a close win over the Football Team. Los Angeles played good defense and their offense moved the ball when it mattered most, on 3rd down. Justin Herbert is the real deal at QB and he has a legit elite WR in Keenan Allen. With the Cowboys inability to play defense and going up against a good offense on the road I only see this ending one way.
The Bet: Chargers Spread
DFS Must Start: Every WR-Whether it be Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, or CeeDee Lamb, you must start a WR from this game. The implied total is among the highest on the slate and both QBs can sling it. A stack here with all 3 is the most profitable if you can afford it.
Tennessee Titans v Seattle Seahawks
The Titans did not show up in week 1 and paid the price with a blowout defeat at home. Ryan Tannehill had his worst game in nearly two years, Derrick Henry was invisible, and elite WRs AJ Brown and Julio Jones were shut down. The Seawhawks took down another AFC South team in week 1 when they handled the Colts. Seattle moved the ball downfield with deep passing plays and their defense limited Indy to 2 touchdowns. This game screams an easy Seattle win but I see otherwise. The Titans are better than their week 1 performance indicated and I think Seattle is worse than they showed in week 1. Head Coach Mike Vrabel does not tolerate fools and I think he will have the Titans ready to run through a brick wall on Sunday.
The Bet: Titans Spread
Fantasy Football Sit ‘Em:Julio Jones-The former #1 receiver in Atlanta came over in a huge trade in the offseason and was projected to slot in and improve the offense. That was far from the case in week 1. He was hardly involved and committed a costly personal foul penalty that was singled out by Vrabel in the postgame. He could get on his horse and have a personal revenge game but I need to see it before he can sniff my starting lineup.
Fancy A Parlay?
Browns, Patriots, Buccaneers, and Packers all to Win on the Moneyline (+150)
It's not the highest of odds and I could probably be more aggressive here but this is a bet that will not lose. It stinks because you have to wait for Monday Night to cash that ticket but just you wait, it will cash.