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Tuesday’s game for the United States against Iran was win or go home. Now that the USMNT have reached the knockout stage of the tournament, every game is win or go home. First up for the American men is the Netherlands in the Round of 16. The Dutch finished first in Group A and are a traditional European powerhouse in world soccer. But don’t let the mismatch on paper fool you, this game will be close.
USA
The United States enters this game on the heels of an emotional victory over Iran. They also enter this game with some question marks when it comes to injury concerns. Christian Pulisic suffered a pelvic contusion when scoring the winning goal but luckily said today that he fully expects to play against the Netherlands. Another injury concern is striker Josh Sargent who started 2 out of the 3 group stage matches. His presence is needed through the middle of the attack as backup Haji Wright has limited experience, and looked poor on Tuesday, while 3rd choice striker Jesus Ferreira has yet to play a single minute this tournament.
For the USMNT the game plan has been pretty consistent. They play strong defense, dominate the ball in the middle of the pitch, and look for that one opportunity to strike. As group play comes to a close, no team has allowed fewer goals than the US. That mark is largely due to the outstanding play of defensive midfielder Tyler Adams who has done an excellent job limiting counter attacks and helping out the backline in and around their own penalty area. The struggle for the USMNT, however, has been scoring goals. Their 2 goals in the group stage is tied with Poland for the fewest of any team that has advanced. Finding a way through on goal will be crucial to the USMNT’s chances on Saturday.
Netherlands
The Netherlands share some similarities with the United States as both teams have the joint best defensive record with only 1 goal conceded. Yet they also struggle sometimes to score goals, with nearly half their tally coming in one game against lowly Qatar. What the Netherlands does not lack, however, is quality. They are led out from the back where captain Virgil van Dijk is one of the best central defenders in the world. Alongside him is Matthijs de Ligt, one of the best young centerbacks in the world, and Nathan Ake another strong talent. The size and speed of their defenders is what makes it so difficult to score against them.
In attack the Dutch have been led by a rising young talent in Cody Gakpo. The PSV Eindhoven prospect has enjoyed an amazing season at the club level and has translated that success to the World Cup where he has scored in all 3 games. Alongside him is Dutch stalwart Memphis Depay who has played all over Europe for big clubs and is always a threat despite a rather toothless season thus far. The midfield is perhaps the weakest part of the Dutch team. Frenkie de Jong is a strong box to box midfielder but the Netherlands really lacks another world class talent to pair with him. Denzel Dumfries is one of the better wingbacks the US will go up against but he can only play on one side of the pitch while the other is lacking a true starting quality player.
Breakdown
The tactical matchup between these two teams will be very interesting to watch. The USMNT lineup in a very typical 4-3-3, a formation actually made famous by the Netherlands. The US will attempt to move the ball between the triangles in the wide areas formed by the winger, the near sided midfielder, and the fullback. That is an area of the pitch where the US found the most success in the group stage and it is one that can be exploited against the Dutch. The Netherlands line up in a 3-4-1-2 which leaves the wide area in their own half very open. They rely on the speed of their centerbacks to cover while their size prevents balls from being whipped into the box for chances. Finding a way past one of the outside defenders, de Ligt or Ake, will be key for the US when finding that golden chance to take the lead.
The first goal in this match will be everything. With both teams boasting strong defenses it could be the difference between advancing and being sent home. I fully expect this game to stay close and low scoring all the way through. In fact, I am not ruling out a 0-0 game that heads into extra time. That scenario would best suit the US who could play for penalty kicks where everything is even and anything can happen. But if the Netherlands score the first goal, I find it hard to envision a scenario where the USMNT can come back to win. Once again, the midfield will be extremely important, and if McKennie-Adams-Musah can dominate like they have, then this mismatch on paper could very well tilt in favor of the US.
The Pick
The Bet: Draw on the 90-minute line
Alternate Bet: Under 2 Total Goals
Prediction: USA 0-0 Netherlands (USA Advance on Penalties 4-3)
