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The message is clear, win and you are in. That is all US Men's National Team Head Coach Gregg Berhalter has to say to his squad before they kick off their final group stage game against Iran. But the message on the other side of the pitch is even clearer, avoid defeat and advance. The contrast in the desired result between the two sides will determine how the game is played. How the USMNT reacts will determine if they stay in Qatar.
Through two group stage games the USMNT has simultaneously impressed and disappointed. The first half in their World Cup opener against Wales was a masterclass. They dominated possession, had far more chances, and broke through with the first goal. The second half, however, was a discombobulated mess. A lack of structure and control allowed Wales to get back into the game before a late, and foolish, penalty gave the opposition the equalizer.
The good and bad has been a trademark of this iteration of the USMNT under Berhalter. At times they boss the midfield, and in turn they dictate the pace and style of the match. Other times though, their sloppy control when playing out from the back leads them to danger, and in international soccer it is often just that one mistake that will cost you.
This give and take was on display against England in the second group stage game. Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie controlled the middle of the pitch, but centerbacks Walker Zimmerman and Tim Ream were turnover prone, nearly handing goals to the English on a platter. The 0-0 result was widely praised for the underdog USMNT, but now that forces them into a situation where they can only advance with a win, something they have yet to do in Qatar.
This critical match against Iran is all about preparation and execution. In the United States much has been made about the easy nature of this matchup, it is simply win and advance. However, there are 3 results that are possible in a soccer match, and Iran can advance with 2 of them. That means they will be playing for a draw, hoping to lock it down and keep the game at 0-0 for as long as possible. How the USMNT handles this type of match will determine if they advance.
Oftentimes when one team is playing for a draw and the other must win it takes a long time to see the first goal. The low block Iran will likely play is always difficult to break down. The USMNT will either need a moment of brilliance, a long dribbling run from Christian Pulisic or Yunus Musah, or a long distance strike from Weston McKennie. While both are possible, they are unlikely considering that neither has happened for this team so far in this tournament. If the game remains tied going into the second half then the US will need to change the pace, and the best way to change the pace is with substitutions.
Through two games in Qatar the best player on the USMNT bench has been Giovanni Reyna. However, he has only made one cameo, a late one against England. His match fitness was in question heading into their tournament, but if he is ready to go then the US will need him in the second half against Iran. Expect Reyna and fellow super-sub Brendan Aaronson to be the change-of-pace difference makers.
If the US comes through with the win, I expect it to be 1-0. Iran won’t play aggressively, and will likely only try to score if they end up conceding. This means that everything is in the USMNT’s hands. This is what you want when you are the better team, but that also means you have to actually show your quality. Through two World Cup games we have yet to see the USMNT simply go for it. The sooner they do this the better, but I expect them to leave it late because nothing ever comes easy for Berhalter and company.
