MLB Preview 4-28-21

Cincinnati Reds v. Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected Starters: Sonny Gray v. Clayton Kershaw

On paper this looks like a dream setting for a pitchers duel, but then you remember it isn’t 2015. Sonny Gray is 31 years old now and owns a 7.88 ERA on the season. Clayton Kershaw is 33 years old, and while his ERA is much better at 2.56, his stuff just doesn’t have as much punch as it used to. Let's also consider the fact that the Reds have the #1 offense in baseball and the Dodgers own the #6 offense with big bats littered throughout their lineup. The total is lower than it should be because Kershaw is on the mound but this game is going over.

The Bet: Over 7.5 Total Runs

Kansas City Royals v. Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected Starters: Mike Minor v. Mitch Keller

This is more of a doubledown by me here. Yesterday I took the Royals because I thought they had ridiculously good value at -115 going up against a bad Pirates team but it was Pittsburgh who came away with a close 2-1 win. Today, the Royals have good value again, at -125, and will throw out a better starting pitcher. Minor had a career year last season and parlayed that into a big payday in the offseason. His numbers have been average to start the season but I am banking on him throwing 6 quality innings for the Royals today.

The Bet: Royals Moneyline

Detroit Tigers v. Chicago White Sox

Projected Starters: Casey Mize v. Carlos Rodon

Detroit secured an upset win over this same White Sox team yesterday despite Chicago throwing out one of their top arms in Lucas Giolito. Tonight, the White Sox have another top arm in Carlos Rodon on the mound and his numbers are far more impressive than Giolitos. Rodon is 3-0 on the season and owns a 0.47 ERA in just under 20 innings pitched, that's unreal. In games where Rodon has started, the White Sox own a +17 run differential, and those were all games against teams better than the Tigers. I am going to ride Rodon and Chicago to a nice payday tonight.

The Bet: White Sox Runline

Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros

Projected Starters: Justin Dunn v. Zach Grienke

Houston has won each of the first two games in this series and will be looking to secure the sweep tonight. Seattle will throw Dunn out on the mound and he owns some respectable numbers, a sub 4.00 ERA and a 1-0 record over just under 15 innings pitched. Grienke, is an all time MLB pitcher who continues to get it done, even at the age of 37. Grienke is 2-1 on the year with a 2.76 ERA in over 30 innings pitched already. I believe this game will be more of a pitcher's duel than a shootout and with the total sitting around 9, you can get a good return on taking the under here tonight. 

The Bet: Under 9.5 Total Runs