MLB 2021 Season Preview-NL East

NL East:

Atlanta Braves

Strengths: Front End Batting & Pitching-The Braves employ one of the strongest batting orders in the league and a lot of it has to do with their first 4 hitters. Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and Marcell Ozuna are an intimidating group for any opposing starting pitcher. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are as good a 1-2 pitching punch you’ll find and this could be the season that makes Fried a household name.

Weaknesses: Depth-The Braves have a lack of depth in both hitting and pitching because they’ve spent so much money on their top guns. To win consistently you need to have your bottom order guys chip in offensively and your depth pitchers need to have quality starts that keep your team in the game.

X-Factor: Dansby Swanson-The former top-pick in the MLB Draft has yet to live up to his immense potential. Could this be the year he finally breaks out?

Best Bet: Under 91.5 Total Wins-The NL East is a gongshow and this will be Atlanta’s toughest test to retain their division crown since their return to elite status. 

Miami Marlins

Strengths: Youth and Veteran Mix-The Marlins are a rebuilding franchise that is trying to put out a solid product while also giving their young guys service time. Jazz Chisholm is a top-prospect for them and has made the Opening Day roster as the starting 2B.

Weaknesses-: Top End Talent-As a rebuilding team, it is hard to attract high level talent since playoff expectations are so low. The Marlins made the expanded playoffs last year but with the system reverting back to its original field this year, those hopes are likely dashed.

X-Factor: Sixto Sanchez-The young pitcher had a good rookie year last season but has been optioned to Triple-A to start the season. Can he regain his form and get promoted back to the Majors and help his club win games? 

Best Bet: Under 71.5 Total Wins-The NL East has 4 contenders and the Marlins aren’t one. Their playoff qualification last year was an anomaly and they will fall back down to the cellar this year.

New York Mets

Strengths: New Talent-The Mets won the offseason when new owner Steve Cohen officially bought the team and put his money to use immediately. New York went out and traded for star SS Francisco Lindor and will likely be active at the trade deadline this season to add even more talent.

Weaknesses: Too Much Hype-We have seen this before with the Mets recently, a great offseason that creates high expectations and then a terrible regular season and missed playoffs. You don’t win Championships in the Winter in baseball and the Mets need to address that before Opening Day.

X-Factor: Edwin Dias-The former elite closer was brought over in a massive deal with Seattle a few years ago but he has flopped massively in the Big Apple. Dias has been a serial save blower while wearing the Mets uniform and you need a good closer to finish games if you want to win a division, let alone a pennant. 

Best Bet: Under 91.5 Total Wins-PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus show the winner of the NL East to finish with exactly 91 wins and we don’t even know who that winner will be considering Atlanta, New York, and Washington are all good enough to take the division crown.

Philadelphia Phillies

Strengths: Balanced Lineup-The Phillies have a very solid batting order that features players who can hit for power, like Bryce Harper, and players who can hit for contact, like Andrew McCutcheon. They also feature the best hitting catcher in the league in J.T. Realmuto.

Weaknesses: Pitching-The Phillies had the worst bullpen in the MLB last year and did not do nearly enough to address it this offseason. Their starting rotation is extremely average and the promise Aaron Nola once showed has started to dissipate. 

X-Factor: Didi Gregorious-The former Yankee has flashed elite ability at the SS position before but since coming over to Philly he hasn’t had enough game time to prove he still has it. If Gregorious can get back to the form he was in when he finished within the top-20 for MVP voting two years in a row in the Bronx, the Phillies could make a run to the postseason.

Best Bet: Under 81.5 Total Wins-There are 3 better teams in this division meaning the Phillies have little room for error despite deploying a lineup full of error prone pitchers, it is not a good combo. 

Washington Nationals

Strengths: Starting Pitching-The Nationals have one of the best starting rotations in the MLB with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Jon Lester headlining. The 5th spot in the rotation is currently held by former high prospect Joe Ross who has yet to show the ability he once had, mainly due to injuries playing a big role in his career development.

Weaknesses: Age-The Nationals are a veteran heavy team, and while that was part of what helped them win the World Series in 2019, it’s now 2 years later and you have to wonder what someone like Ryan Zimmerman has left in the tank. Other older veterans include Lester, Kyle Schawarber, Josh Bell, Max Scherzer, Josh Harrison, and Yan Gomes who are all expected to play a lot this season. 

X-Factor: Stephen Strasburg: Strasburg finished top-5 in Cy Young voting in his last full season but in 2020 he played only one game before getting shut down due to injury. If he plays a full season, or at least 75% of his projected starts, the Nats will be scary. 

Best Bet: Nationals to Make the Playoffs

Final Standings Projection:

1. Atlanta Braves (Y)
2. Washington Nationals (X)
3. New York Mets
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. Miami Marlins

Y: Clinched Division

X: Clinched Wild Card Spot

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