MLB 2021 Season Preview-NL Central

NL Central:

Chicago Cubs

Strengths: Utility Play-The Cubs can win games this season by a variety of ways. They possess a strong defensive lineup and have a rare star that is both a plus hitter and plus fielder in Javy Baez. Their pitchers won’t blow you away but each one of their starters has a strong arsenal of pitches to attack each hitter individually.

Weaknesses: Lost Talent-This Cubs team is a lot different than last year's team. Chicago has lost Yu Darvish and Jon Lester from their starting pitching rotation and Kyle Schwarber from their lineup. These losses are going to affect their ability to have one player take over the game, especially since Darvish was coming off a Cy Young caliber season. 

X-Factor: Joc Pederson-The former Dodger was at one point one of the top young players in the MLB but LA’s ability to spend and bring in talent eventually pushed him to the bench. Pederson hit 36 homeruns in 2019 and if he can get back to that form then the Cubs could make a playoff push.

Best Bet: Over 78.5 Wins-Lots of people think this Cubs team is bad, but that is because they are comparing it to Cubs teams of the past. That World Series title is forever ago at this point and while this team is shade of what it once was, it is still solid enough to contend for a Wild Card spot, even though they won’t get it in the end.

Cincinnati Reds

Strength: Veteran Talent-The Reds have a strong core of veterans, led by franchise cornerstone Joey Votto and supplemented by Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Wade Miley, and Sean Doolittle. Whether some of these players can regain their past form remains to be seen.

Weaknesses: Pitching-The Reds rotation doesn’t jump off the page at you and a big reason is the recent losses of Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray. Doolittle used to be an elite closer in the MLB but he has struggled ever since the start of the 2019 season with the Nationals.

X-Factor: Eugenio Suarez-The key to Suarez impact for the Reds is whether he finishes the season with the team. Suarez is a phenomenal player who has been a trade target by other contenders in the past. If he can play like he has each of the past few seasons, he could carry the Reds to contention in a weak NL Central.

Best Bet: Under 81.5 Wins-Overhyped. People think this veteran hodgepodge of players will help the Reds finally get to the playoffs but they have trotted out a mis-matched team for years and it has never worked. They will be sellers at the deadline, again.

Milwaukee Brewers

Strengths: Balance-The Brewers are not flashy anywhere on their roster but they are good nonetheless. Other than Christian Yelich, they have no star players but guys like Keston Hiura and Brandon Woodruff can make big impacts every time they take the field/mound. Their batting order has few weak spots and also has guys like Yelich who hit for power and guys like Kolten Wong who are on-base machines.

Weaknesses: Lack of Star Power-On the opposite end of the spectrum is the factor that a lack of star power plays in games. You can’t expect all 9 guys to contribute with their bat every night and you need a guy to pick your team up and carry you. Christian Yelich is the only guy that can do that and he has battled injuries each of the past 2 seasons, it is not guaranteed he can play every day. 

X-Factor: Jackie Bradley Jr.-He was a former standout starter for the Red Sox when they won the World Series but he had a down 2019 and 2020 with the bat and now he has moved on. His fielding is a plus, and always has been, but if he can contribute at the plate it would be a massive help to the Brewers chances to win the division. 

Best Bet: Over 83.5 Wins-Someone has to win this division and why not the Brewers? With all the games they will play against the Pirates and the Reds there are wins on the table to be had.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Strengths: Opportunity-The best way for a bad team to spin an disastrous upcoming season is by labeling it as an opportunity. Young players will get opportunities to cement their roster spot on next year's team while older players will get opportunities to show they still have something left in the tank and maybe get dealt to a contender at the deadline or sign a better deal in free agency next season.

Weaknesses: Everything-This team is flat out bad. Three or four years ago the Pirates saw an opening to make the playoffs and sold out their future just to lose in the Wild Card game. Some of the players dealt were Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, and most recently, Jameson Tallion. Those 3 all on the same team would make up the best 1-2-3 starting pitcher punch in the league. Shame on Pittsburgh for their short-sightedness.

X-Factor: Ke’Bryan Hayes-The top prospect has made the opening day roster and will start the season at 3B. If Hayes can show his potential is legit and become an everyday player, things might start to look brighter in the Steel City.

Best Bet: NA-Their win total is so low it's almost not worth taking either way, and the odds on them to make/miss the playoffs are extremely skewed, and rightfully so too.

St. Louis Cardinals

Strengths: Experience-There is a difference between simply being a veteran and being a veteran with experience. The Cardinals veterans all have experience as 4 players in their batting order have reached a NLCS and 3 of their 5 starting pitchers have as well. Players like Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright are so helpful when keeping a team focused on a long term goal during a 162 game season. 

Weaknesses: Pitching Depth-The Cardinals lack a deep rotation and a deep bullpen. Neither are bad, don’t get me wrong, but there is going to be a lot of stress on the top arms. Jack Flaherty is an ace in my mind and Wainwright is a steady hand but after that you are asking for a big jump from Carlos Martinez compared to his career numbers.

X-Factor: Nolan Arenado-The Cardinals signaled their intent to contend when they swung the big trade for the former Rockies star. Arenado is a plus hitter and a plus fielder who is capable of doing it all. The biggest question will be whether he can continue it in new threads and whether leaving the friendly air at Coors Field will impact his slugging. 

Best Bet: Over 85.5 Wins-The Cardinals are my favorite to win the NL Central this year and a big reason is Arenado and Flaherty. Those two will have career years and carry this team to October...where they will promptly be eliminated in the first round. 

Final Standings Projection:

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates

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